As the racing world sets its sights on Del Mar this week, the excitement of the Breeders' Cup returns to Southern California, bringing with it a showcase of international talent, speed, and strategy. Known for its “where the turf meets the surf” charm, Del Mar's coastal track offers a dramatic backdrop for two days of world-class racing, with contenders from around the globe vying for a piece of the fame, prestige and prizemoney . This year’s Breeders' Cup promises unforgettable performances and the potential for history-making moments as top Thoroughbreds, trainers, and jockeys prepare to clash in races like the Classic, the Distaff, and the Mile. Racing fans, whether newcomers or seasoned experts are in for a thrill as champions are crowned in this season-defining event.
As per usual, I've been tasked with finding a few winners, which is always easier said than done at this meeting but we'll give it a go.
Race 6 - 5f Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (2yo) (Turf) (2yo)
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, a Grade 1 race, showcases the exceptional talents of two-year-old thoroughbreds on the turf. Introduced in 2018, this relatively new addition to the Breeders' Cup World Championships has swiftly gained popularity and prestige within the horse racing community. Last year we saw Big Evs storm to victory and the Europeans will be looking to record their third successive win.
ECORO SIEG (4/1) - For my money, this son of Twirling Candy is potentially the most exciting horse on the planet. His two runs to date in Japan have been nothing short of exceptional and the way he destroyed the field when winning the Canna Stakes made most punters stand up and take note. The most telling thing about that victory was the sectionals. While I haven't been able to verify the number personally, I've been reliably informed that he went through the first three furlongs in 32.6 seconds. If that number is accurate, and he can repeat the fete tonight, then forget about backing anything else because there can only be one winner.
ASTERIUS (5/1) - I can't imagine too many Breeders Cup winners have started their careers at Bath but Archie Watson's colt has gone from strength to strength this year and deserves his place in the line-up. He has shown a few little quirks in the past and if he's to play a part in the finish he will need to handle the occasion. I also have a few reservations about his form and ability to handle a heavily contested early gallop.
BIG MOJO (6/1) - As mentioned, these connections won the race last year and I think it's fair to say they have a chance once again. However, this horse doesn't have the same explosive pace as BIG EVS and probably has a little more to prove than ASTERIUS despite beating him at Goodwood. I could see him being in the top 4/5 but it would be a big surprise if he were to win.
SHAREHOLDER (12/1) - This son of Not This Time was last seen bombing out in the Prix Morny behind WHISTLEJACKET. He will need to leave that run behind him if he's to play any part here and James Doyle will have had the pick but we usually see something close into the pace to grab a 2nd or 3rd in this race and I just think that this colt might be positioned to pick up the pieces, together with MAGNUM FORCE.
CONCLUSION
I'm a sucker for a hype horse and therefore I'm only interested in one runner here and that's ECORO SIEG. I don't think the sprint division in Europe is particularly strong at the moment and that could pave the way for the Japanese to get the job done. I will also have a small EW play on SHAREHOLDER closer to post time, as I think he'll end up drifting and might sneak a place close home.
Race 7 - 1m½f (1m110y) NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Main Track) (Dirt) (2yo)
The NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, a Grade 1 race, is a time-honoured showcase of the finest two-year-old fillies on the dirt. This event has a storied history dating back to its inception in 1984. Run over a distance of 1 mile and 110 yards, it serves as a vital platform for identifying the most promising young fillies in the sport and has launched the careers of numerous equine superstars. The first port of call in this contest is always to look for horses who finished 1st or 2nd in a G1 race in the first week of October, with the Alcibiades at Keeneland and the Frizette at Belmont, being key trials.
IMMERSIVE (3/1) - This daughter of Nyquist was last seen winning the Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland. It was workmanlike rather than flashy, but in her defence, she sat just in behind a strong gallop and had to burn a little more gas than the placed horses (including QUICKICK) who sat well off the pace early on. I think she deserves her place at the head of the market, especially as she has a more favourable starting stall than both her closet market rivals.
SCOTTISH LASSIE (3/1) - This daughter of McKinzie showed plenty of speed on her debut (top speed 44mph) but was ultimately no match for QUICKICK who went past her with time to spare in the final furlong. While there was a degree of promise in that run, I certainly didn't see her performance in the Frizette coming. She blew the field away; travelled all over them, and once Lezcano pushed the button, she galloped clear in the blink of an eye to win by nine lengths. The only other horse I can remember winning the Frizette in similar style was ECHO ZULU and she won this contest on her next start by five lengths. Now while I'm not saying this filly is at the same level as EZ, you have to respect the speed figures. Physically, she also looks like a three-year-old colt, which is never a bad thing.
AMERICAN BIKINI (4/1) - This Japanese raider is an unknown quantity. She's a perfect three from three in her career to date and being out of American Pharoah, I'd expect her to handle the dirt. While it wouldn't be the greatest surprise to see her run well, I still think the two American fillies at the head of the market hold all the cards.
CONCLUSION
It's virtually impossible to pick between IMMERSIVE and SCOTTISH LASSIE and the market seemingly can't split them either. However, I can't back them both, so I'm going to take a chance on SCOTTISH LASSIE and hope that her run in the Frizette wasn't just a one-off.
Race 8 - 1m Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) (2yo)
This race always seems to fall short of what you expect at a meeting as prestigious as the BC and this year's renewal again appears underwhelming.
LAKE VICTORIA (10/11) - This daughter of Frankel has been mightily impressive so far and the consensus in the US is that if she turns up, she'll win. I tend to agree. While I would love to go hunting for something to oppose her with, the other Europeans are below par and none of the home team immediately jump off the page. Being by Frankel, the extra furlong shouldn't be an issue, especially not at a track like Del Mar and sometimes, you just have to accept that the favourite is the value play.
THOUGHT PROCESS (11/2) - This daughter of Collected leads the way as far as the American contingent is concerned, at least that's what the market suggests. She comes into this race having won the Surfer Girl Stakes on her last start, landing a hat trick in the process but I have some serious reservations about her form and that race has been a poor trial for the BC meeting in recent years. One I'm happy to oppose.
KILWIN (25/1) - With this field lacking depth, I wanted to find a runner who might have a reason to improve this evening and my pin eventually landed on this daughter of Twirling Candy. She's a perfect two from two so far in her career with both wins coming at sprint distances. While her pedigree gives mixed messages about her ability to handle the step up in trip, I think her run style will give her a chance and if Lezcano can keep her settled and well-positioned, she might be capable of running into a place.
CONCLUSION
A one-horse race as far as the market is concerned and if LAKE VICTORIA gets a clean run around, she should dispatch this field relatively easily. I'm also going to have a few quid EW on KILWIN though, in the hope she'll improve for the step up in trip.
Race 9 - 1m½f (1m110y) FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) (2yo C&G) (Main) (Dirt) (2yo)
This race, more than any other on the day, lives up to the billing and to be honest, it usually does. We have a potential superstar at the head of the market, with a whole host of other runners who are more than capable of bursting his bubble.
EAST AVENUE (2/1) - This son of Medaglia D'oro wowed the crowd and race analysts when streaking to a 5-length victory in the Futurity Stakes at Keeneland. It must be said that it wasn't the strongest renewal but Tyler gave the horse an uber-confident ride, and the winning time was impressively given that he'd set his own fractions throughout. The horse in second (FEROCIOUS) re-opposes this evening and the result reads favourably against CHANCER PATRICK who could only beat that same horse by a length at Saratoga. I have my doubts about the run at Keeneland and I'm always weary of backing a horse in this particular race without seeing how he responds to pressure. On the one hand, I won't be surprised if he leads this field from gate to wire but on the other, I won't be surprised if he gets run down in the final furlong having burned bright and faded under the pressure of a contested early gallop.
CHANCER MCPATRICK (9/2) - This son of McKenzie is an absolute warhorse. He's all heart but he also has bundles of talent. While he struggled to dispatch FEROCIOUS at Saratoga, that was over seven furlongs and he made up bundles of ground late in the piece. In my opinion, he was value for a fair deal more than the winning margin. Following that run, he went to the Champagne Stakes and won easily, and his final furlong time was one of a top-class animal. I think this race could unfold perfectly for him if we see a contested gallop. Ultimately, if he can get to the hindquarter of EAST AVENUE in the final furlong, then I do not doubt that he'll go past him. Either way, he's a great EW option, as well as being the obvious pick for the combo forecast with the favourite.
JONATHAN'S WAY (13/2) - This colt is another who will be putting his perfect win record on the line this evening. He's yet to dip his toes into Grade 1 company, so has something to prove on that front but his win in the Iroquois Stakes was impressive and he seemingly benefited massively from the step up in trip, hitting the line hard, despite having set solid fractions throughout. On collateral form with MESERO, there isn't a huge amount between him and EAST AVENUE and he may have the early boot to go stride for stride with him too if Rosario wants to.
CONCLUSION
Come 11:47, I might look like a complete fool for opposing EAST AVENUE here but I'm prepared to take that risk especially as I can't see CHANCER MCPATRICK being out of the top 2/3 no matter what happens. If the opposition gives Tyler a soft lead then I think there will only be one winner but this is the Breeders Cup and I'll be shocked if Baffert and Co don't have a plan to scupper Tyler's plans and at least force EAST AVENUE to prove he can win the hard the way.
Race 10 - 1m Prevagen Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo)
This race is always one of the most trappy on day one, despite the fact that the Europeans have farmed it in recent years. This year's renewal looks no different and I don't fancy my chances of stumbling upon the winner.
NEW CENTURY (5/1) - Andrew Balding's colt currently heads the betting and I guess I can see why. He's already shown he can handle the stress and strain of international travel and his form ties in closely with AL QUDRA. That being said, I don't have any real interest in him at 5/1 as a repeat of his performance in the Summer Stakes simply wouldn't be enough to win this in any normal year.
HENRI MATTISE (7/1) - No punter should head into this race without giving a considerable dollop of respect to anything Aiden runs. He's won this race six times including the last two renewals and no doubt the lads will be keen to get Wootton Basset another BC win. On paper, this horse probably has something to find but he's looked like a miler since inception and with the race flow and fast ground certain to suit, you discount him at your peril.
SATONO CARNIVAL (12/1) - Truth be told I know very little about these connections but I watched this horse win over six at Hakodate and he was impressive despite looking like the trip was a bare minimum. The other interesting thing about him is that Rachael King takes the ride and will miss Victoria Cup Day in her home country. Now maybe the opportunity to ride in the BC was too good to refuse but I think this horse holds decent claims and he's certainly an appealing price.
CONCLUSION
This is a tough race to get to the bottom of and I think half of the field could end up leaving Del Mar with a win. The two I've sided with are HENRI MATTISE and SATONO CARNIVAL, as they both offer a bit of EW value in my eyes.
So, that completes my review of day one. Well done for making it to the end! Hopefully, I've managed to find a few winners and whatever happens, I'm sure we'll be treated to a feast of top-class racing this evening. Providing I have some money left in the old betting bank come midnight, then we will do it all over again tomorrow.
Good luck!
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