Well, as expected, we saw some fantastic performances last night at Santa Anita. The highlight for me (and many others) was BIG EVS powering to victory in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. The sectional times were exceptional, the performance was jaw dropping and I'm sure his connections will be celebrating for at least a week!
As far as the betting was concerned, we hit a couple of nice winners in the shape of BIG EVS and HARD TO JUSTIFY and I personally thought that CANDIED was a little unlucky too, having had a nightmare trip around. Tonight's card is notoriously difficult to navigate so hopefully we won't end up giving all of our profit back to the bookies!
Now, down to business. Let's have a look at some of the main races on the card and see if we can find a few winners.
Race 3 - 1m Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile was introduced to provide a unique platform for horses that excel in middle-distance races, making it an exceptional spectacle for fans who appreciate the balance between sprinting speed and staying power. It has been won by some exceptional animals over the years including the likes of LIFE IS GOOD, CITY OF LIGHT, GOLDENCENTS and many more.
CODY'S WISH - If you don't already know the story behind this horse's name, give it a google because it's a classic. For the last 18 months this horse has dominated the mile division in the US and has only blotted his copy book once during that time when finishing 3rd in the Whitney Stakes (key trial). Whilst the run at Saratoga was disappointing, he has never been beaten over a strict mile and he faces a bunch of horses this evening that are well below his pay grade. He's the horse that every news outlet will want to win but also the horses that every bookie will want to get beaten.
ZOZOS - I personally think that CODY'S WISH sets an almost unbeatable standard but if he is going to be beaten it will probably be by a front runner who gets their sectionals spot on and catches him flat footed. This horse has been in good form so far this season and whilst his previous runs in G1 company have been poor, this is really a G1 in name only.
CONCLUSION
This race is pretty straightforward (at least for me). As long as Junior is alive to the pace, there is really no excuses for CODY'S WISH and for that reason he's the horse for me. I do also think that it's worth having a cheeky go on the forecast with ZOZOS.
Race 4 - 1m2f Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Hillside) (Turf) (3yo+)
INSPIRAL - This daughter of Frankel has arguably looked better than ever on her last two starts and it was interesting to hear John's comments about her racing weight after her win in the Sun Chariot. I guess the question mark today would be the distance as it will be her first start over 10 furlongs and her primary assets has always seemingly been her turn of foot. However, 10 furlongs at Santa Anita on lightning quick ground isn't exactly a tests of stamina and with the home team looking pretty average, I can totally understand why this filly is at the head of the betting.
WARM HEART - This daughter of Galileo has been a model of consistency in recent times especially as we can put a line through her run in the Irish Oaks. Unlike INSPIRAL, she's taking a drop back in trip but she's also likely to be on or near the lead which could prove to be advantageous as she's a game filly that does length her stride once challenged. She also has very similar profile to TUESDAY, who won this race last season and she's definitely a contender.
LINDY - This filly was no match for MAWJ at Keeneland on her last start and her French form certainly wouldn't be on the same level as the two horses above but I think this course and distance will suit her and she might just sneak a place.
CONCLUSION
This isn't a race which I have an overly strong opinion on. On paper it is difficult to split the top two in the betting but in the end, my pin landed on WARM HEART simply because she's proven at the trip and Ryan is riding at an exceptional level right now.
Race 5 - 7f PNC Bank Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
GOODNIGHT OLIVE - This daughter of GHOSTZAPPER heads to Santa Anita today looking to land the double in this race. Last year she put her rivals to the sword in a race where it paid to be prominent in the run and I think that is likely to be the case again this evening. In an ideal world I'd have liked her to be drawn off the rail but with pace to her outside, if Irad can break well and then drop in behind the likes of EDA and SOCIETY, I think he will be perfectly positioned to angle out off the home bend and make the best of his way home. On paper she sets a very clear and obvious standard and for me only Irad can get her beaten.
SOCIETY - This daughter of GUN RUNNER is a free going type but she's certainly capable on her day. Her last two wins have been impressive and she's not a horse you'd want to be giving a soft lead to. However, she was comprehensively beaten by GOODNIGHT OLIVE in the Madison Stakes and I expect it to be a similar story this evening, especially as she will probably face pace pressure.
MATAREYA - This daughter of PIONEEROF THE NILE has always looked a little short of being top top class but she did manage to beat GOODNIGHT OLIVE in the Distaff back in May. Truth be told, she was a fortunate winner as Olive was continually denied a clear run in the straight having found herself boxed in on the rail. A place chance at best this evening I would imagine.
EDA - This daughter of MUNNINGS is likely to be the speed of speed this evening. She's lightning quick, breaks well and has a high cruise speed. The problem however is that this trip does stretch her slightly as she's at her absolute best over 6.5F. The one thing that does make her interesting today is the fitting of the first time blinkers. If they can help her to race more efficiently then she may hang around on the front end for a little longer than usual. Whilst I still expect GOODNIGHT OLIVE to go past her, she may offer a little bit of EW value at a big price.
CONCLUSION
For me this race is all about GOODNIGHT OLIVE and Irad Ortiz Jr. There is no doubt in my mind that she's the class in this field and if Irad can keep her in clear air, she should be extremely hard to beat. As mentioned above, EDA may offer a bit of EW value and could be a potential play for the bottom leg of the forecast too.
Race 6 - 1m FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile presented by Permanently Disabled Jockey Fund (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)
MAWJ - This filly is a textbook Godolphin owned globetrotter who has taken her form to a new level since stepping up in trip. She comes into this race seeking a four timer and her win in the Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland clearly sets the standard. However, the British and Irish trained runners haven't always lived up to the hype in this race when its been run at Santa Anita in the past and on balance, I think she's probably short enough in the betting for that reason.
SONGLINE - The Japanese are leading the way at the moment in just about every way when it comes to the sport of horse racing. Their approach to breeding, training and race plotting is second to none and this particular mare is bound to be popular in the betting ring. Whilst it's not easy to get a grasp of her form in Japan, her win at Riyadh reads well in the context of this race (CASA CREED back in second) and I could see her playing a part in the finish. However, she's a deep closer and with the pace likely to be even at best, I'd need an EW price to tempt me into backing her.
KELINA - This daughter of Frankel ruined Frankie Dettori's 'Retirement' tour when landing the Prix De La Forte at Longchamp on her last start. Whilst her overall form may not be as strong as some in this contest, what fascinates me is her record when encountering good ground. It's clear to me that she thrives in fast conditions and if her connections had taken up the invitation to run in the QE2 at Keeneland, she may well have given MAWJ something to think about. If that had happened, she'd be a 3/1 shot here so I think her current odds provide a little bit of value in a wide open race.
GINA ROMANTICA - This daughter of INTO MISCHIEF has taken her form to a new level this season and is certainly upwardly mobile. There is no doubt that she will need to improve again if she's to trouble some of the European Raiders but she did a stunning bit of work at Keeneland last week and you write off a Chad Brown horse at your peril.
SHIRL'S SPEIGHT - This mare ran second in this contest last year at a huge price. While this year's renewal is deeper, she ran well in the Woodbine Mile behind MASTER OF THE SEAS and she might be one to look at backing EW with a couple of extra places closer to the off when she'll inevitably be 50/1+.
CONCLUSION
This is arguably the most trappy and competitive race on tonight's card. Whilst MAWJ sets a good standard I don't feel that she's unbeatable and for that reason I'm going to take my chances with KELINA each way and hope that Maxime can negotiate both the draw and the pace scenario.
Race 8 - 1m4f Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Hillside Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
AUGUSTE RODIN - I don't think there is any doubt that this son of DEEP IMPACT is a top class animal but his two runs at Ascot this season and the issues he has travelling may be a cause for concern for some punters. However, he's been in California for quite sometime, has had plenty of time to acclimatise, and all the reports I've heard since his arrival have been positive. It's no secret that this has always been Aidan's plan and he has a great record in this race. For me, he sets the standard and this could end up being a match race between him and MOSTAHDAF.
MOSTAHDAF - This horse was no match for EQUINOX in the Sheema Classic but there is no disgrace in being beaten by the Japanese flying machine. Since then he's been outstanding in the UK and his win in the Prince of Wales was top draw. A repeat of that run would almost certainly give AUGUSTE RODIN something to think about but on balance, I think Aidan's runner has the edge.
KING OF STEEL - This son of WOOTON BASSET finally came good on Champions Day at Ascot when winning the Champion Stakes under a textbook Frankie ride. My personal view is that he simply lacks the gears required to be a truly exceptional middle distance performer and I can't really see a reason to believe that he'll reverse prior form with AUGUSTE RODIN.
UP TO THE MARK - A home team winner is probably unlikely in this race given the quality of the European raiders but this son of NOT THIS TIME impressed me when winning the Coolmore Mile. He was returning from an absence that day so you'd expect him to improve for the outing and his recent homework has been decent. I can't really see him winning but he may sneak a place at the expense of KING OF STEEL.
CONCLUSION
I've fancied AUGUSTE RODIN to win this race for quite sometime and I'm not going to abandon him now. I am however a little less confident now that he has MOSTAHDAF to contend with but I still think he'll have too many gears for his rivals in the final furlong or two.
Race 9 - 1m2f Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
ARABIAN KNIGHT - This colt has had four runs in his career to date and has only tasted defeat once when beaten by MAGE and GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (reversed form NTO) in the Haskell. He's a typical Baffert horse in that he has tremendous gate speed and races aggressively. The issue for him this evening is that he's drawn in stall 12 and faces potential pace pressure from stalls 3 and 6. Despite the draw, I can't really see Flavien looking to drop in. It's more likely that he'll break for the lead and if that happens and SAUDI CROWN and WHITE ABARRIO press and then drop off, there is every chance that ARABIAN KNIGHT will be lit up. His chance will then be totally dependent on whether Flavien can get a breather into him and steady the pace like he did in the Pacific Classic.
USHBA TESORO - This horse is a superstar in Japan and has looked unbeatable since making the switch to dirt racing. His win in the World Cup at Meydan showed that he's capable of mixing it with the world's best but this race is hardly ever won from a midpack position and with Flavien likely to be on the front end dictating the sectionals, I just can't see him giving the hold up horses a chance to really get involved at the business end. If any horse is going to defy the predicted pace bias though, it will be this one.
WHITE ABARRIO - This is another horse who is likely to be involved in the early pace battle. In truth his overall record in G1 company is average and I can't really see him winning but if ARABIAN KNIGHT and SAUDI CROWN were to cut each other's throats, then he may find himself in the driving seat. If that were to happen though, it would inevitably bring the likes of USHBA TESORO and ZANDON into the equation and both of those runners should be good enough to beat him if we were to see a pace collapse.
SAUDI PRINCE - This colt has been progressive this season and like ARABIAN KNIGHT, he has bundles of speed. The concern for him tonight would be the step up in trip as he's been tagged close home on two occasions over 9 furlongs previously. I know Brad is confident that he has the talent to win this but I'm just not convinced.
CONCLUSION
This is such a tricky puzzle to solve as so much is going to depend on what happens in the first two furlongs. For my money, Flavien is one of the best jockeys in the world and I trust him to get his sectionals right if he does end up on the lead. Furthermore, I know that Baffert has always held ARABIAN KNIGHT in the highest regard and whilst you always have to take his comments with a pinch of salt, this is a race that he loves to win. For that reason, ARABIAN KNIGHT is my rather tentative selection.
Race 10 - 5f Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)
LIVE IN THE DREAM - This horse gives hope to every owner that with the right horse and a bit of luck you can find yourself on the biggest stages in racing. Whilst he didn't manage to get the win at Keeneland, he lost nothing in defeat and the drop back to 5 furlongs today is almost certainly in his favour. The fact that two potential pace angles have been scratched also bolsters his claims and if he does win tonight, I have a feeling that he'll break the track record set by BELVOIR BAY in the process. The negative for him is that the Europeans have struggled to win this race in the past as the older American Sprinters tend to be capable of covering all the bases. I still believe he has a fantastic chance though and I'll be cheering him home.
CARAVAL - Last year's winner isn't coming into this race in the best of form having been beaten on her last two starts. However, she will love the pace scenario here and this CD could be perfect for her. If LIVE IN THE DREAM and Co do get their fractions wrong early on then Tyler is going to be in a prime position to strike in the straight.
NOBALS - This is the horse who could scupper LIVE IN THE DREAM'S chance of winning as he's the one horse in the lineup who could probably go stride for stride with Adam's stablestar early on. Ultimately, I'd be amazed if he was able to hang in there to win but I'm sure everyone will be hoping that he misses the break and hands the favourite a soft lead!
CONCLUSION
I stuck with BIG EVS last night and it paid off and I'm going to do the same with LIVE IN THE DREAM here. Deep down I feel that he might be vulnerable in the final half a furlong but Adam West seems like a real gent and I love the fact that they've resisted the temptation to jock off Sean.
Tonight promises to be another fantastic evening of racing. I'm not as confident about some of my selections as I was last night but I still think I've found a few winners and either way, if CODY'S WISH and LIVE IN THE DREAM win, I'll be a happy man.
Good luck!
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