Day one at Del Mar was a difficult watch. While I managed to highlight most of the winners, I was considerably poorer this morning having managed to pick the wrong horse from my shortlist on more than one occasion. Hopefully, we'll have more luck this evening but tonight's card is notoriously difficult to navigate.
Race 5 - 5f Prevagen Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)
COGBURN (13/8) - The latest superstar sprinter to come out of the Asmussen barn. He's undefeated this season and really, the only thing that can get him beaten today is the draw as stall 9 will give Irad a decision to make early. Ultimately, he should have the boot out of the gate to at least get a prominent pitch and if that proves to be the case, he'll be very hard to beat.
BRADSELL (11/2) - Archie's colt has had a fantastic season but the draw has not been kind to him today. While it wouldn't be enough to write him off completely, Holly Doyle will need to have her wits about her and will need a huge dollop of luck in the run too.
BELIEVING (8/1) - A strongly run five, on fast ground, is probably an ideal scenario for this filly especially if the blinkers sharpen her up. She has work to do to reverse prior form with BRADSELL but at 8/1 she offers a smidge of eachway value given how consistent she is.
CONCLUSION
I got inside my head on a few occasions last night, and I don't plan on doing the same this evening. I'm sticking with COGBURN in the hope that Irad gets the ride right.
Race 6 - 1m1f Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
THORPEDO ANNA (8/11) - The removal of IDIOMATIC from this race has meant that this filly now finds herself taking a penalty kick. There is no doubt that she's the proven quantity in this field and I really can't see her being beaten by any of her American rivals. The only real danger is the unknown quantity which is AWESOME RESULT.
AWESOME RESULT (6/1) - This daughter of Justify has been making waves in Japan since her debut win in back in 2022. On breeding she should handle the dirt and her run style should suit Del Mar. We saw a Japanese winner of this race back in 2021 and while it's hard to see TA getting beat, I think this filly will at least have a chance to play a part in the drive to the line.
CONCLUSION
I'm sticking with THORPEDO ANNA here but I will have an EW play on AWESOME RESULT too together with a sneaky combo forecast.
Race 7 - 1m4f Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)
REBEL'S ROMANCE (10/3) - Charlie's gelding will be looking to win this race for the second time having previously won the contest back in 2022 at Keeneland. He's been in good form this year, rarely runs a bad race and deserves his place at the head of the market. However, I do feel he'll prove vulnerable to younger legs, especially from stall 12.
JAYAREBE (4/1) - Truth be told, I've underestimated this horse all season but the penny finally dropped for me having watched him win at Longchamp the last day. He's a top-class horse who has been campaigned to perfection this season and I see no reason why he won't be a major player in this race.
FAR BRIDGE (11/1) - The main danger for the home team and he's probably been forgotten slightly due to the historic European dominance of this race. His record under Rosario reads 1st/1st/2nd/2nd/1st and I think he's almost certain to finish in the top 3 this evening.
CONCLUSION
I'm siding with JAYAREBE here. I just think he's tactically versatile, will relish the conditions and comes into the race bang in form with an ideal prep.
Race 8 - 1m2f Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
CITY OF TROY (15/8) - The most talked about runner at this year's meeting and I've heard a lot of nonsense spoken about him in the last few weeks both by his supporters and his opponents. There is no doubt that he's a top-class animal and the decision to send him to this race has to be commended. For me, this simply becomes about an assessment of value and in my eyes, he's a little too short in the betting despite this being one of the weakest renewals in recent memory. While he's by Justify, his progeny have had more success on the turf than the dirt and I'm not convinced that COT has the early boot to get a prominent pitch. If he gets shuffled back, it will take a seriously classy performance to win and while I'd love to see it, I think he has work to do. That being said, whatever he does this evening, he is the best horse in this race by some distance.
FIERCENESS (3/1) - This horse is an enigma. On his day, he's exceptional but he also tends to throw in a few shockers as was the case when he bombed out in the Derby. He had excuses that day (caught wide, contested pace) but it was still a disappointing run. Thankfully, he's been in great form since, winning the Travers and the Jim Dandy. It is also interesting to note that Coolmore has bought his breeding rights. Historically the Travers hasn't been a great prep for this race though and I'm not prepared to take 3/1 about a horse who is seemingly so reliant on pace and position.
FOREVER YOUNG (5/1) - The only thing preventing me from piling into this horse this evening is the issues he has out of the gates. If I knew he was going to break clean, I'd be going in deep because I think he has all the attributes required to win this contest. However, if he's slowly away, it won't be easy to play catch up and that would greatly hinder his chances of winning. I still think he'd run into a top-four finish either way though.
HIGHLAND FALLS (25/1) - I can't see this horse being good enough to win but he ticks a few boxes and appeals as a potential EW play especially if you can take advantage of the enhanced terms being offered by some bookies.
CONCLUSION
Usually, I'd probably be sitting this race out but I'm going to take a chance on FOREVER YOUNG each-way and hope that COT and FIERCENESS fluff their lines.
Race 9 - 1m3f Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+)
CINDERELLA'S DREAM (10/3) - A top class filly who is 5 from 5 going left-handed. She hasn't had an ideal prep for this having missed some time with Colic but she ticks all the boxes this evening and should get everything she needs to be seen to best effect.
CONTENT (4/1) - It's extremely difficult to get an accurate read on this horse as she's been so in and out this season and obviously Ryan was originally going to ride YLANG YLANG. She wouldn't be the first horse of Aiden's to suddenly spring back to form at the Breeder's Cup but she makes little appeal to me.
MOIRA (13/2) - This mare ran a blinder in this race last year to finish 3rd behind INSPIRAL and WARM HEART. She arguably comes into this year's race in even better form but there is a questionmark about the extra distance she'll have to cover as the race at Santa Anita was a bare 10 furlongs whereas this is 1m 3f. I still think she holds EW claims though.
FULL COUNT FELICIA (10/1) - On form, this filly simply isn't good enough to win but if they give her a soft lead around here, with Irad in the saddle then they could find themselves in trouble. I think it's unlikely though, as so much has been made about her run style in the build-up to this contest.
CONCLUSION
I've opted to back both MOIRA and CINDERELLA'S DREAM here as I think they hold all the cards. I am a little worried about CONTENT but hopefully, we won't see a wave of market support for her before the off.
Race 10 - 6f Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)
FEDERAL JUDGE (9/2) - This horse comes here on the back of an emphatic win in the Phoenix Stakes. That performance sets the standard and he's drawn to attack from stall 3. As we saw last night, it's not easy to boss the field at this track and there's plenty of opposing speed so it will be interesting to see how Irad plots a path through the early stages.
MULLIKIN (5/1) - Another bang in form with plenty of early zip. He stays well, battles and has the class to be a major player. However, stall ten is going to mean that Flavian has a decision to make right of the gate and with bundles of speed to the inside, you could see him getting caught in no man's land if he fails to get prominent within the first furlong.
NAKATOMI (9/1) - Comprehensively beaten by FEDERAL JUDGE in the Phoenix Stakes but he had excuses (the track was favouring speed, caught on heels). I have a sneaky suspicion that we may see a pace collapse here and if that proves to be the case, this horse could be the one to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.
CONCLUSION
A trappy race which will probably be decided in the first two furlongs. I've elected to pick one from the front and one from the back, so I've gone straight win on FEDERAL JUDGE, with an EW cover on NAKATOMI.
Race 11 - 1m FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile presented by PDJF (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)
NOTABLE SPEECH (9/4) - This lad isn't an easy horse to assess. At times in his short career, he's looked unbeatable but at others, he's looked well below the grade. The one thing I know for sure is that this course will play to his strengths and Charlie will have presumably had at least 2 or 3 he could've aimed at it. With the pace likely to be honest early doors, William should be able to take a midpack sit and come with a sustained run. If he gets a clean run and doesn't get shuffled too far back, he has to be the most likely winner.
PORTA FORTUNA (5/2) - This filly has been a model of consistency and there's no doubting her talent. She ran well at this meeting last year and looks set to do the same again tonight. She's likely to be further forward in the run than most of her nearest rivals so if a strong gallop doesn't materialise, she's going to be in the driving seat.
CARL SPACKLER (7/1) - Usually I'd only be interested in the European's here but this horse is of interest purely because he's likely to sit on the lead early doors and strike for home early. If the gallop is honest, he'll probably scupper PORTA FORTUNA'S chance of winning but if the pace is no better than even, they may end up fighting out the finish.
MORE THAN LOOKS (12/1) - This son of More Than Ready when a blinder in this race last year as a three year old. He's bigger and stronger this season and while he's been beaten by CARL SPACKLER on his last two runs, I think the likely pace scenario here will give him every chance to reverse that form. He may even have a chance to outsprint NOTABLE SPEECH...
CONCLUSION
How punters approach this race solely depends on the assessment of the likely pace. I think we're going to see a strong gallop and a pace collapse which has led me to side with NOTABLE SPEECH (WIN) and MORE THAN LOOKS (EW).
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